Funding Commuter Rail

For as long as the property tax debate was going on in Tallahassee, we heard from local elected officials "don't cut property tax revenue or we'll have to kill commuter rail." This past week, Osceola County brought forth the idea of raising the local gas tax by five cents per gallon to fund commuter rail and other transit options.

Five cents sounded like a big increase to us, and being so close to the Orange County line, a reason to go to Orange County to buy gas if the increase went into effect. So we did some research. As we understand it, Osceola County's current fuel tax is one cent per gallon, enacted on 1/1/1987 (source: Florida Department of Revenue). In 2006, $1,634,234 in fuel tax was distributed to Osceola County (source: Florida Department of Revenue). We took that number and did some math. According to the Orlando Sentinel, County Manager Michael Freilinger is proposing adding a nickel to the local gas tax to fund transit, bringing the local tax to six cents per gallon. If we multiply the $1,634,234 that the county received at one cent per gallon by six, we get a projected annual gas tax revenue of $9,805,404 (based on 2006 volume).

That's a big pile of money. According to the Sentinel, Osceola County's share of funding for the commuter rail project is $22.2 million in 2011 and then $3 million per year in 2017. ($3.85 million is in the 2008 county budget for engineering and parking, according to the Osceola News-Gazette.)
With all other things being constant, assuming the gas tax change went into effect in 2008, the difference in revenue between the current and proposed gas tax is $8,171,170 per year. So let's look at the income and outlays for the new tax and the commuter rail:

Year	Addl Income	Rail Payment	Difference
2008	+$8171170	$0	+$8171170
2009	+$8171170	$0	+$16342340
2010	+$8171170	$0	+$24513510
2011	+$8171170	-$22,000,000	+$10684680
2012	+$8171170	$0	+$18855850
2013	+$8171170	$0	+$27027020
2014	+$8171170	$0	+$35198190
2015	+$8171170	$0	+$43369360
2016	+$8171170	$0	+$51540530
2017	+$8171170	-$3000000	+$56711700

and so on...

So, sure, $22 million is a big number in 2011, if the county needs to have all of that cash in their pocket to make the payment right then (bonds anyone?). But with our little math model, there is still $10 million left over that year. And the gas tax revenues far overwhelm the estimated operating payments going forward. Would someone like to show the error in our math? Or is this just another big scary tactic that is almost sure to wipe out support for commuter rail while generating funding for other projects?